The Climate Displacement Crisis

Climate Change: The Great Displacement

Climate-induced displacement refers to the forced movement of people whose homes and livelihoods become uninhabitable due to sea-level rise, extreme weather, coastal erosion, drought, or other environmental degradation linked to global warming. Unlike refugees fleeing war or persecution, climate migrants leave behind land that has become physically impossible to occupy — their homes do not burn down from conflict; they sink beneath rising tides.

Coastal flooding exacerbated by sea-level rise. Global sea levels have risen over 7 inches since 1900, accelerating storm surge impacts. (Credit: NPS, Public Domain)

The numbers are staggering. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) projects up to 200 million climate migrants by 2050 — a figure that could double if global emissions follow current trajectories. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) reports that over 14 million people are affected annually by coastal flooding alone. Each year, millions more lose ancestral land to drought, desertification, and intensifying storms.

These are not distant projections. In Bangladesh, 17 million people could be displaced by a 1-meter sea-level rise. In the Pacific, entire island nations — Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands — face the existential prospect of sovereign territory ceasing to exist. In Africa's Sahel, millions are already moving as desertification advances southward.

This lecture will first examine the International Maritime Organization itself — who it is, what it does, and why it matters for climate displacement. We will then explore the human and cultural dimensions of this crisis: the people who have no legal category to describe them, and the heritage that vanishes when communities are forced to move.

IMO's Mandate: Beyond Shipping Safety

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is the United Nations specialized agency responsible for the safety, security, and environmental performance of international shipping. Established in 1948 as the Inter-Governmental Maritime Consultative Organization (IMCO), it was renamed the IMO in 1982. Today it counts 176 member states, representing the vast majority of the world's shipping nations.

IMO's core mission is clear: to ensure that international shipping operates in a manner that is safe, secure, environmentally sound, energy efficient, and sustainable. Under the leadership of Secretary-General Arsenio Domínguez, the 2024–2029 Strategic Plan identifies three pillars: leading the global shipping regulator, protecting the marine environment, and addressing climate change through decarbonization of the maritime sector.

But IMO's relevance to climate displacement extends far beyond regulating ships. The organization's work directly intersects with the survival of coastal communities through several channels:

• MARPOL Convention — the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships, which sets standards for preventing marine pollution that coastal communities depend upon
• Ballast Water Management — preventing the transfer of invasive species that can destroy coastal ecosystems and fisheries
• Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) — the body that addresses greenhouse gas emissions from shipping and their contribution to climate change
• Technical cooperation with Small Island Developing States (SIDS) — programs specifically designed to help the most vulnerable nations adapt to maritime and environmental challenges

IMO's technical cooperation programs with SIDS are particularly significant. These small island nations — many of them former colonies with limited economic resources — face disproportionate climate risks. Through initiatives under the IMO-SIDS framework, the organization provides capacity building, technology transfer, and policy guidance to help these nations protect their coastlines, manage their maritime zones, and adapt to a changing climate.

International Maritime Organization (IMO) Headquarters, London — the forum where 176 Member States deliberate on maritime affairs. (Credit: Celsoazevedo, CC BY-SA 4.0)

The question, then, is not whether IMO has a role in climate displacement — but whether that role is sufficient for the scale of the crisis unfolding.

Climate Refugees: A People Without a Category

The term "climate refugee" is widely used in media, advocacy, and political discourse — yet it has no legal status in international law. This is not merely a semantic issue; it is a profound protection gap that leaves millions of displaced people without the legal recognition, rights, or assistance available to refugees under the existing international framework.

Walter Kälin, the former Representative of the UN Secretary-General on the Human Rights of Internally Displaced Persons, identified five categories of environmentally induced displacement: (1) sudden-onset natural disasters (floods, storms, earthquakes); (2) slow-onset environmental degradation (sea-level rise, desertification); (3) environmental factors contributing to complex emergencies; (4) development-induced displacement (dams, infrastructure); and (5) climate change as a "threat multiplier" that exacerbates existing vulnerabilities.

The numbers paint a stark picture. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) reports that in 2023, disasters — overwhelmingly weather and climate-related — caused 46.9 million internal displacements, representing 56% of all internal displacement worldwide. These are not war refugees; they are people whose homes were destroyed by floods, typhoons, droughts, and wildfires.

The core problem lies in the 1951 Refugee Convention. Under this treaty, a refugee is defined as someone with a "well-founded fear of persecution" based on race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or membership in a particular social group. Climate change does not fit any of these categories. There is no binding international legal instrument that protects people who cross borders because their homeland has become uninhabitable due to environmental factors.

Climate-induced displacement: a resident watches their flooded home from afar in Ntoroko, Uganda. Flooding driven by changing monsoon patterns forces millions from their homes each year. (Credit: Muhumuza Joseph, CC BY-SA 4.0)

The closest frameworks to addressing this gap are the Nansen Initiative (2012–2015) and its successor, the Platform on Disaster Displacement. The Nansen Initiative's "Agenda for the Protection of Cross-Border Displaced Persons in the Context of Disasters and Climate Change" (2015) established a set of Protection Agenda principles — but these remain non-binding guidelines, not enforceable legal obligations. The question of whether to create a formal legal category for climate refugees remains one of the most contentious issues in international humanitarian law.

The Silent Casualty: Cultural Heritage

When we speak of climate displacement, the focus is understandably on physical safety, housing, and livelihoods. But there is another dimension that receives far less attention — and may be equally devastating in the long term: the loss of cultural heritage.

Tangible heritage is perhaps the most visible casualty. UNESCO has identified numerous World Heritage sites threatened by sea-level rise, including Venice's historic center, Easter Island's (Rapa Nui) coastal monuments, and the ancient port cities of the Mediterranean. These are not merely tourist attractions — they are the physical repositories of human civilization's relationship with the sea, accumulated over centuries and millennia.

But it is the intangible heritage that may be lost most irreversibly. Languages, oral traditions, ceremonial practices, fishing knowledge passed down through generations, ancestral burial grounds, and the spiritual connection between a community and its land — these cannot be packed into boxes and moved to higher ground. When a community is displaced, its cultural ecosystem fragments. Elderly members who carry irreplaceable knowledge may not survive the transition. Children grow up in new places without the stories, songs, and traditions that defined their parents' world.

In the Pacific Islands, this connection is especially profound. The Tuvaluan proverb "Ko te atua, ko te malo, ko te fenua" — "God, the nation, the land" — expresses a worldview where land is not a commodity to be traded but the very foundation of identity. As one community leader explained: "We are the land; the land is us." If the land disappears, who are we?

Victoria Herrmann, a researcher at the National Geographic Society, has documented what she calls "Culture on the Move" — the process by which displaced communities attempt to carry their cultural identity with them. Her work in Alaska, where Indigenous communities are relocating due to coastal erosion, reveals both the resilience and the profound grief of cultural transplantation. Some communities succeed in maintaining their traditions; others see them erode within a single generation.

The loss of cultural heritage is not an abstract concern. It has material consequences: cultural identity shapes community cohesion, mental health, and the capacity to adapt. A community that loses its cultural foundations may struggle to rebuild social bonds, maintain collective decision-making, and sustain the mutual support systems that are essential for resilience.

A World Under Water: Regional Vulnerabilities

Climate displacement is not a uniform phenomenon. Its impacts vary dramatically by region, shaped by geography, economic capacity, governance structures, and historical legacies. Understanding these regional differences is essential for crafting effective maritime and humanitarian responses.

SWOT satellite data reveals elevated sea levels around Tuvalu's inhabited islands. Sea level rise in this region has substantially exceeded the global average over the past three decades. (Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech)

Tropical Storm Beta inundates Corpus Christi, Texas. As sea levels rise and storms intensify, coastal flooding reaches further inland — over $200 billion in assets are exposed in US coastal cities alone. (Credit: Robloxsupersuperhappyface, CC BY-SA 4.0)

Southeast Asia faces perhaps the most concentrated threat. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates that 25 million people in the region could be displaced by 2050 due to sea-level rise alone. Cities like Jakarta, Manila, Ho Chi Minh City, and Bangkok — home to tens of millions — sit on sinking deltas and low-lying coastal plains. Indonesia's decision to relocate its capital from Jakarta to Nusantara on Borneo is a direct response to this crisis.

Africa's 30,000-kilometer coastline hosts some of the world's fastest-growing cities. Lagos, with a population exceeding 20 million, faces acute flood risk. Alexandria, Egypt's second city, sits on land that was once ancient harbor. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, is projected to lose significant coastal area by 2050.

Oceania presents the most extreme case. The Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati — with average elevations below 3 meters — face not merely displacement but the potential loss of national territory and sovereignty. These nations contribute virtually nothing to global emissions yet bear the most catastrophic consequences.

The Americas face intensifying hurricane seasons and coastal erosion. Miami-Dade County alone faces $200 billion in exposure. New York's post-Sandy infrastructure investments illustrate the scale of adaptation required. Europe, while wealthier, faces its own vulnerabilities — particularly along Mediterranean coastlines and the North Sea, where €2.5 trillion in infrastructure is at risk.

Key Takeaways

Three core takeaways from this lecture:

1. IMO's mandate is broader than it appears. While the organization is best known for regulating shipping safety, its work on marine environmental protection, ballast water management, and technical cooperation with Small Island Developing States places it at the intersection of climate change and coastal community survival.
2. Climate displacement is a legal crisis. Despite affecting tens of millions annually, climate migrants have no recognized legal status. The 1951 Refugee Convention was never designed for this reality, and the international community has yet to produce a binding framework to fill the gap.
3. Cultural heritage is a critical, overlooked dimension. When communities are displaced, they lose more than homes — they lose the languages, traditions, and identity that define them. This loss undermines resilience and makes recovery far more difficult.

Questions for Reflection

—— End of Lecture 01 ——
Continue to Lecture 02: Maritime Strategies & Delegate Preparation